Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 24.659132 29.120503 34.603406 41.995906 51.965216 65.365843 85.555236
2025-02-02 20.321029 25.767498 33.264888 44.884564 63.614854 95.273035 160.834710
2025-02-09 16.635008 21.866145 29.505979 42.301650 65.278536 110.618866 231.714417
2025-02-16 15.066426 20.486150 28.864803 44.038518 74.633469 147.129370 424.220684
2025-02-23 13.539423 18.847035 27.388838 43.772782 79.931384 180.181658 740.645376
2025-03-02 12.336093 17.504349 26.103502 43.427755 84.890351 218.966554 1424.713708
2025-03-09 11.503737 16.629194 25.440380 44.094538 92.741229 280.865038 3993.495332
2025-03-16 10.476662 15.301366 23.748850 42.149086 92.652770 311.964566 9827.305934
2025-03-23 9.824549 14.535286 22.976213 42.047671 98.082228 385.660836 163480.242383
2025-03-30 8.999377 13.389415 21.335797 39.584617 94.898653 403.047439 NaN
2025-04-06 8.233075 12.287306 19.667120 36.769417 89.529341 397.938373 NaN
2025-04-13 7.628778 11.429414 18.396198 34.726385 86.243349 406.977335 NaN
2025-04-20 7.853153 12.092799 20.265841 41.109527 119.429268 998.921646 NaN
2025-04-27 7.700244 12.050331 20.692932 43.922563 142.167083 2052.845320 NaN
2025-05-04 7.163186 11.238069 19.372243 41.419228 136.509501 2200.326002 NaN
2025-05-11 6.975625 11.076595 19.451751 43.102620 155.768086 5013.850410 NaN
2025-05-18 6.674906 10.671196 18.938732 42.845131 163.770048 9506.004614 NaN
2025-05-25 6.396251 10.288403 18.435346 42.510777 171.425565 22088.833859 NaN
2025-06-01 6.198404 10.050631 18.239880 43.156899 187.607073 236184.160957 NaN
2025-06-08 5.874442 9.540011 17.355704 41.271319 182.131542 662219.668385 NaN
2025-06-15 5.672233 9.262770 17.001163 41.172991 192.167673 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.362824 8.752061 16.047783 38.783845 179.853871 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.051454 8.225423 15.028035 36.050560 163.386801 NaN NaN